Dillon Maples – A More Extreme Carlos Marmol

A pitcher lives and dies by the hitters they strike out and walk. It is this concept that brought about FIP, the modern foundation for advanced pitching metrics. And no pitcher in recent memory epitomized the extremes of high strikeout and walk rates more than Carlos Mármol .

Mármol slider was one of the most unhittable pitches in all of baseball. It’s impossible to describe how nasty the pitch was, so I’ll just leave this video of Mármol striking out 4 straight San Francisco Giants (including Buster Posey) with just a slider.

 

Absolute filth.

In 2008, Mármol slider had the 5th best total value in the MLB. Not too bad, especially when you consider Mármol was a reliever, who only pitched 87.1 innings. All pitchers ranked ahead of him were stellar starters (CC Sabathia, Armando Gallaraga, Derek Lowe, and Ervin Santana), all with at least twice as many innings as Marmol.

Carlos Mármol finished his career with a 11.6 K/9, including a 2010 campaign of 16 K/9, a record at the time. Every single season he pithced he posted double digit K/9’s. And batters could not hit him, as he finished his career with a .186 Batting Average Against. Amongst pitchers with 500+ Innings, only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Billy Wagner allowed fewer Hits per 9 Innings Pitched.

But Mármol had a weakness, a big one. Carlos Mármol struggled with his command, particularly on his 94+ MPH fastball. And as a result, he walked a lot of batters. A LOT. In his career, Mármol walked 15.7% of batters, 6th worst amongst pitchers with 500+ Innings. Amongst all his outings, probably none were more painful than September 24, 2011. Against division rivals St. Louis Cardinals, Mármol walked the bases loaded, a run in, and capped it off with a wild pitch to blow the save and lose the game. In his career, Mármol allowed 385 hits. He walked 395. Hitters decided they had a better chance getting on board by not swinging.

With impeccable strikeout rates and ghastly walk rates, Mármol stands alone amongst Major League pitchers.

MLB Career K% vs. BB%; Minimum 500 Career Innings; Source: Fangraphs

Carlos Mármol is a legend in this regard. Upon being DFA’d by the Cubs, Deadspin commemorated the moment with an article titled “Fare Thee Well, Carlos Mármol And Your Extreme Aversion To Contact”. It seemed hard to believe that such an extreme pitcher would ever arise again, especially in the Cubs organization. But wouldn’t you know it, the Cubs have been developing a pitcher even more extreme than Carlos Mármol, Dillon Maples.

So far, Dillon Maples has only seen 10.2 Innings of big league work, but already posted a 16.9 K/9 and a whopping 9.3 BB/9. In an inning of work, you can count on at least 1 batter getting walked by Maples. It was thought that Mármol was extreme in only seeing 38.7% of pitches getting a swing. So far, Maples is at 31.5%. League average is 46.6%.

Just like Mármol, Maples features a nasty slider. Here he is throwing one by Max Muncy.

But also like Mármol, Maples features a hard (97 MPH+!) fastball that he struggles to throw for strikes. Out of 154 sliders thrown in the big leagues, Maples has thrown 81 in the zone (52.6%). Compare that to 38/81 fastballs (46.9%).

Dillon Maples Slider Zone Profile

Maples’ performance in the Pacific Coast Leagues demonstrates that these numbers are not a fluke. Amongst his PCL peers, Maples stands alone, with an eye-popping 42.4 K% and 22.0 BB%.

Pacific Coast League 2018 K% vs. BB%; Minimum 32 Career Innings; Source: Fangraphs

Only Jared Miller and Bobby Wahl walked and struck out PCL hitters respectively at higher rates. Maples even posted a .162 Batting Average Against in the PCL, with hitters struggling to get a hit off of him.

The Cubs DFA’d Mármol in 2012, the same year Maples started in rookie ball with them. So in hindsight, it all makes sense now. The Cubs only had room for one pitcher in their whole system with an ability to throw pitches right past batters, regardless of whether or not they were directed at the catcher. Cubs fans, brace yourselves. Carlos Mármol has returned, and he’s even more wild and impossible to hit than before.